Understanding Ocean Freight Alliances: December’s Impact on Indonesian Exports – Indonesian exporters are currently navigating a landscape defined by “managed volatility”. Understanding the current state of ocean freight alliances Indonesia is not just about keeping up with news. It is about securing space and protecting your margins during this busy year-end season.

The year 2025 has been a transformative period for global shipping. We have seen the complete restructuring of the major carrier networks, a shift that has directly impacted how goods move from Indonesia to the world. As we close out the year, the dust from the “Great Reshuffling” of February 2025 is settling, but the market remains dynamic. 

The New Alliance Landscape in December 2025

For decades, the shipping world was dominated by three stable groups. That changed earlier this year. We are now operating in a reality where the 2M Alliance is gone, replaced by new competitors with very different strategies.

  • The Gemini Cooperation: This partnership between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd launched in February with a bold promise of 90% schedule reliability. They adopted a “hub-and-spoke” model. For Indonesian shippers, this has meant fewer direct calls to long-haul destinations but more frequent feeder connections to hubs like Singapore and Tanjung Pelepas.
  • The Premier Alliance: Formerly THE Alliance, this group (ONE, HMM, and Yang Ming) rebranded and refocused. They have maintained a strong presence in the Transpacific trade, which is vital for Indonesia’s textile and footwear exports to the US.
  • MSC Standalone: The world’s largest carrier, MSC, decided to go it alone. They now operate a massive independent fleet. This gives them incredible flexibility to change routes without needing a partner’s approval. For Indonesian exporters, MSC has been aggressive in offering competitive slot options, especially on Asia-US routes.
  • Ocean Alliance: Amidst all this change, the Ocean Alliance (CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen) remained the stable giant. They offered continuity while others were restructuring.

Current Market Conditions: Managed Volatility

As we stand in December 2025, the market is experiencing what experts call “managed volatility”. After a long decline in freight rates over the last 17 weeks, we are seeing a small rebound. This is driven by carriers managing their capacity carefully.

Carriers are using “blank sailings” (cancelled voyages) to keep rates from falling too low. For the rest of December, we expect an average capacity cut of around 8% on major trade lanes. This artificial tightening of supply means that even if demand is not skyrocketing, finding space can still be tricky for last-minute shipments.

Rising Intra-Asia Rates

One of the most immediate impacts for Indonesian businesses is the cost of regional shipping. Intra-Asia rates are climbing as we approach the end of the year. This is a traditional seasonal pattern, often linked to the pre-Lunar New Year rush.

If you are exporting raw materials or components to China, Vietnam, or Japan, you might have noticed surcharges or General Rate Increases (GRIs) kicking in this month. The logistics network within Asia is busy. Congestion in key hubs like Singapore and Port Klang is tightening effective supply, which pushes prices up.

How the “Hub-and-Spoke” Model Affects You

The shift to the Gemini Cooperation’s hub-and-spoke model has changed the logistics network for many. In the past, you might have relied on a direct mother vessel calling at Jakarta or Surabaya. Now, your cargo is more likely to be loaded onto a smaller feeder vessel first.

This system aims for higher reliability, but it adds a layer of complexity. We have observed that while schedule reliability has improved on the main legs, the pressure on transshipment hubs has increased. Indonesian exporters need to account for these connection times when promising delivery dates to buyers in Europe or the US.

The Importance of the Carrier Agreement

In this fragmented market, the carrier agreement you hold is your safety net. With MSC operating independently and the Premier Alliance adjusting its loops, relying on a single carrier is risky.

We recommend a strategy of diversification. You should not put all your eggs in one basket. Shippers who split their volumes between the stable Ocean Alliance and the aggressive new Premier Alliance or MSC have fared better this year. They have options when one network faces congestion or equipment shortages.

December’s Export Routing Challenges

December is always a short month for logistics due to the holidays. This year, the challenge is compounded by the lingering effects of the alliance restructuring.

  • Equipment Shortages: We are seeing tighter availability of empty containers in inland depots. This is a side effect of the blank sailings, as fewer ships mean fewer empties being repositioned back to Indonesia.
  • Schedule Reliability: While Gemini targets 90% reliability, the transition period in 2025 caused disruptions. As we end the year, reliability is better than it was in Q1, but weather delays in the Northern Hemisphere are currently affecting arrival times.
  • Spot Rate Spikes: If you do not have a contract, the spot market in December can be expensive. Carriers are pushing for higher rates to close their financial year strongly.

Preparing for 2026

The lessons of 2025 are clear: flexibility is key. The alliances have settled into their new grooves, but they will continue to tweak their networks. We expect 2026 to bring more focus on environmental regulations. Carriers will be under pressure to slow down ships to meet carbon emission targets, which could extend transit times.

Indonesian exporters must look at their logistics network holistically. It is not just about the cheapest ocean freight rate anymore. It is about which alliance can actually get your goods to the destination on time. The “cheapest” option often becomes the most expensive if your cargo is rolled (delayed) three times in a transshipment hub.

Navigating the Complexity with Sejati Cargo

The world of ocean freight alliances Indonesia is complex. keeping track of which vessel belongs to which alliance, and which service loop is experiencing delays, is a full-time job. You should not have to be a maritime expert to export your goods.

At Sejati Cargo, we monitor these alliance changes daily. Understand the strengths and weaknesses of the Gemini Cooperation versus the Ocean Alliance and know which carriers are short on equipment in Jakarta and which have space available in Surabaya.

Manage the entire process for you and handle the booking, the documentation, and the inland transport. We use our volume to negotiate better terms with multiple carriers, giving you the benefit of a diversified strategy without the headache of managing multiple contracts.

Let us handle the logistics so you can focus on closing your year-end sales. We ensure your documentation is perfect, your cargo is secured, and your shipment is routed through the most reliable path available.

Secure Your Year-End Shipments Today Don’t let the December volatility disrupt your business. Visit sejaticargo.com today. We will help you navigate the changing tides of ocean freight alliances Indonesia and get your products where they need to go, efficiently and reliably.